Wednesday, November 29, 2006

The waterfilling of fate

The term waterfilling is familiar to information theorists as a well known solution to a famous optimization problem.

The idea is simple. If you had to carry your stuff on donkeys from point A to point B, you would be better off piling more stuff on the stronger donkeys. 'Waterfilling' tells you exactly how much to pile on which donkey so as to maximize the total weight carried.

Now comes the fate part. Some days are luckier than others. And you cannot have missed the army of psychics, palmists, astrologers, tarot-card readers, numerologists... who claim to know much about your fate. The business of prediction is so heavily loaded with confident pretense and deception that it has hardly any credibility. But imagine if there were a way to predict, with 51% correctness the value of an unbiased coin toss, a coin that you could bet on consistently. Or if a man could distinguish between times when his judgment is sound versus when it is not (a catch-22 situation). Impossible? Who knows. We willingly accept that any two massive objects attract each other because we have read it in a book. The world was crawling with people before Newton, but hardly anybody would have agreed. Indeed, of the 1.8 million years that man has walked this earth, almost all were spent believing that the earth is flat. We humans, as a species, are not very imaginative, nor particularly open to new ideas. What we know about nature is astonishing, if you think about it, yet perfectly mundane because we read it up for grades.

What if we could waterfill fate? Uncertainty is an enemy that we try to defend against. What if we could befriend it?

“There is a tide in the affairs of men, Which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune. Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat. And we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.” - William Shakespeare